Every now and again a topic stirs up a quick flurry of debate across the Millward Brown email network. This week it was the old chestnut about 70 percent of brand decisions being made in-store. Prompted by a link to this article in BrandWeek, my colleague Gordon Pincott responded, “My point of view is that 100 percent of decisions are made in store.” And, of course, he is right.

In her article, Barbara Grondin Francella reviews data from a survey conducted by Miller Zell and reports this key finding:

Is your vinegar made from petroleum?  H.J. Heinz Co. is running print ads to draw attention to U.S. federal regulations that allow certain vinegar-making processes to include petroleum. (Click here to read the article in the Pittsburg Post-Gazette.) The article admits it is not clear how many vinegars on supermarket shelves do actually contain ethyl alcohol derived from petroleum, but this lack of clarity is not unusual. Most consumers are blissfully unaware of what ingredients are used to make the brands they buy. However, the Internet is helping to change that, and the ramifications for brands could be far-reaching.

Yesterday I received this plea for help. “Frankly speaking the article [Al Ries's article in AdAge titled "Metrics Madness"] is quite frustrating… I work as a research analyst [and] his article has demoralized me so much that I am thinking of changing my profession.” The email went on to ask me if I would write a post to help convince the writer not to jump ship. How could I refuse?

The sub-title to Al’s article outlines his proposition very succinctly:

“The Answer to Mathematical Failure Seems to Be More Math. If You Run a Company by Numbers Alone, You’ll Run It Into the Ground.”

Unlike many brands in 2008, McDonald’s was in the right place at the right time with the right price. But they didn’t just turn up there out of dumb luck. In a post last week, I cited Don Sull’s “Five myths about business failure in a downturn.” One of Don’s themes was that companies that suffer during recessionary times are reaping the seeds of failure sown well before the downturn occurred. But as McDonald’s success in this year’s BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Brands ranking demonstrates, the seeds of success are also sown well ahead of harvesting.

In my last post, I explored the factors that might cause brands to rise in the 2009 BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Brands ranking. Now I want to examine factors that might cause brands to fall compared to last year. Again, while the full results are embargoed until Wednesday April 29, I think there are some general principles that will help identify likely losers.

The BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Brands ranking, which identifies the world’s most valuable brands in terms of dollar value, is the first and only ranking that combines solid consumer research with publicly available financial data. There are three steps to creating the valuations used in the BrandZ ranking: