The fourth annual BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Brands ranking will be released on Wednesday, April 29. The BrandZ Top 100 is the first and only ranking that combines solid consumer research with publicly available financial data. While the results are embargoed until the official release, recent events have caused me to wonder which brands might rise in the ranking compared to last year.

Topping the ranking last year was Google. While it was the subject of much comment on blogs, Google’s preeminence was hardly a surprising result. A large proportion of Google’s advertising revenue derives from the strong but intangible emotional connection that users have with the brand. This connection keeps them coming back to use Google time after time. In BrandZ terminology, a high proportion of people around the world are “Bonded” to Google. They trust Google to find them the information they need. They appreciate it and think it is better than the alternatives.

But as you probably read in the news, Google’s exceptional 11-year growth spurt has just come to an end. Of course, the results cited in the article were for the last three months and will not factor into the rankings. (The 2009 rankings will be based on numbers from 2008.) But the story does remind us that even the strongest brands can get hit by a recession. As Eric Schmidt, Google’s chief executive officer, states in the Financial Times, “No company is recession proof. Google is feeling the impact.” But he went on to say that Google was “performing strongly at a difficult time.” And that is the important thing about a strong brand. A strong brand helps to minimize the impact of poor economic conditions on a business, and to maximize the potential when times are good.

So bearing that thought in mind, which categories and brands might we expect to perform well in the new rankings? Let’s consider the factors that are most likely to drive growth for any business.

1. Presence in growth sectors and categories is the most important driver of overall business performance. Last year, the demand for mobile services and related technology products helped brands in these sectors outpace those in other more mature sectors. 
2. The second factor is geographic expansion. New markets open up the opportunity to reach new consumers. Brands that have followed an aggressive expansion plan have typically done well. Of course, there is no guarantee that an expansion will be successful, but done right, it can prove a significant growth driver. 
3. A strong presence in the big growth markets of Brazil, India and China will still offer better returns than a strong presence in developed Western economies. Growth has slowed in these markets but is still stronger than elsewhere. 
4. Innovation is central to continued success, particularly when that innovation permits entry into a completely new category. During times of recession, investment in innovation is one of the two features that differentiate winners from losers. 
5. A strong business model is critical to driving profit and ensuring success during a downturn. I’ll return to this point in another post. 
6. Last but not least, a brand that creates a strong attitudinal bond with consumers will help increase current revenues, support a price premium and protect the future revenue stream. A commitment to continued investment in effective brand building is the second factor that differentiates winners from losers in a recession.

Last year, Apple entered the BrandZ Top 10 list, ranking seventh overall, and was the brand with the greatest value increase overall (up $30 billion). Apple’s strong showing reflected the brand’s ability to introduce innovative products, from iPhones to the iPod Touch, that are very well received and that generate extremely loyal customers for Apple. (Click here to read a recent post on my experience with Apple.)

BlackBerry entered the Top 100 ranking for the first time last year, ranking 51 overall. In 2007, BlackBerry more than doubled its revenues, profits and subscribers. Apple and BlackBerry would not have been able to deliver such strong performances without firing on all six of these growth cylinders.

So get your thinking caps on. Which brands do you think are well positioned to grow in the 2009 BrandZ Top 100 ranking? Are there any growth factors that I have missed?

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