In response to a recent post on the topic of whether new media were really displacing old, Charles Frith stated, “Today’s 15-year-olds find social media more interesting than the passive role of watching television . . . they have a low tolerance for mass media messages. They haven’t been conditioned to accept the status quo that their parents have. They’ve grown up with more choices.”

I agree that the major difference between 15-year-olds and their parents today is that the 15-year-olds are used to having access to more media and more ways to communicate with each other. And since being connected to their peers is of paramount importance to teenagers, it’s not surprising that they gravitate toward the “social” media. The question that remains for me is, will these 15-year-olds retain the same behavior and preferences when they’re 25, and beyond? What will be their communication channel of choice when they start working and raising families? Will it be online social networks, or will it be something else?

Only time will give us the answer to this question but I think we can get a few bearings on it now.

First of all, let’s review a few stats from BMRB’s UK Target Group Index study. The data is from last year, but we’re not focusing on the absolute percentages. What we should focus on is the distribution by age.

 

The chart confirms what we might have expected. The 15- to 24-year-olds are much more likely to have participated in one of the listed activities in the last month. But it also points up something which might not have seemed so obvious. There are many more people playing games on their mobile phone than are playing them online, and not just among the youngest age group. Note the levels of participation among the 15 to 24’s and 25 to 44’s: for online gaming, it drops by almost two-thirds, while for mobile gaming, the incidence of playing drops by less than half.

The question this data raises is, do older people game, network and blog less because a) they are unfamiliar with the genres, b) they don’t have time to use them, or, c) they just don’t think it is a good use of their time? My answer would be, all of the above. Online games require a computer. Mobile games do not. The phone is readily to hand and the games are simple and quick to play.

I think that the same principle is likely to come into play in relation to social networking, especially when the mobile ecosystem becomes more developed. Young adults will want to continue to engage in social networking as they grow older, but they will have less time for it, and when they come home from the office, they may just prefer to flop in front of the TV rather than update their MySpace page. But their mobile phones will always be near at hand and easy to use. Therefore I think they are more likely to continue their social networking during the day via the phone, with calls, texts and the mobile social network sites.

Right now access to sites like these is often clunky and time consuming, but I think we can assume that will change. Technology and business practicalities need to be overcome, but given the opportunity these sites present to engage people on a continuous and interactive basis, I am sure these problems will be addressed. Too much money will be left on the table otherwise. While the data from BMRB gives us an overview by age, we know that it is the more affluent members of each age group who are most likely to be online and on the mobile phone. Our Millward Brown Millennial Panel in the United States gives us some insight into what the younger upwardly mobile crowd is up to.

When asked which communication channels they used yesterday, 98% of respondents said they used a mobile phone, taking the top slot over watching TV (95%) and surfing the web/sending e-mail (93%).

Their feedback confirms the central role of the mobile phone to this generation. Freed up from the constraints of the landline, they make calls whenever and wherever they choose. But the data also confirms that the mobile advertising ecosystem in the United States is still underdeveloped and fragmented. In terms of what they did with their phones yesterday: 14% of our panelists said they checked a website for news or information, 5% said they used a search engine, and 5% said they played a game on their phone. Fewer still used the phone to send or watch videos, receive text alerts or use WAP links. The vast majority used their mobile device to talk to people, send texts and check e-mail . . . go figure!

By contrast, the people who went online were far more likely to encounter marketing communication, based on the activities they reported: 76% checked a web site for news and information, 57% visited a social network, 50% watched online videos, and 43% searched for specific information about purchasing goods or services. However, given the current hype about online TV, blogs and podcasts, it is interesting to note the relatively low levels of interaction with those channels. Only 29% of respondents read a blog (mine, of course!), 10% watched a TV program online and 10% listened to a podcast. Given that this age group (18 to 24) is a prime target for these media, we would expect their use among other age groups to be far lower.

To return to the issue of whether or not social networking will take place online or on the phone, I am going to place my bet on the phone. I think it will become the device of choice—not just for talking to people, but for social networking and blogging too.

If that is the case, rather than texting in years to come we may all be twittering. If you were lucky enough to attend the South by Southwest music and digital conference then you are probably one of the few outside the digerati that know Twitter exists.

Twitter is a free, fledgling web service that lets its subscribers send short updates about their every thought and action by phone to their social network of friends. It allows people to share personal experiences as they happen, and is the logical extension to in-depth but cumbersome social network pages and blogs. I have seen the future and it is one where birds of a feather will flock together… by phone.

So what does the future hold in your opinion? Will the mobile phone be the channel of choice? Let us know.

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Tags: Millward Brown, Nigel Hollis, mobile phone, mobile, social networking, social media, MySpace, Twitter, TGI, new media

This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 23rd, 2007 at 4:51 pm and is filed under Media. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site. Print this Page